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Samstag, 22. Dezember 2012

Happy Christmas

Donnerstag, 20. Dezember 2012

New trades

I bought today Jungheinrich, Klöckner and Debenhams (London). I think we will see a strong stock in the first weeks in Januar before we start with a correction.

Additional I still sta long in E.on, EADS and 2G Energ.

Dienstag, 18. Dezember 2012

short in Gold


SX - 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2013

Every year SX analyst Jakobsen write his prediction which I very amused me. From the 10 I personel believe that gold will see the 1200$

LONDON, December 18, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, today releases its annual batch of ten Outrageous Predictions for 2013. This is Saxo Bank's annual exercise in rooting out relatively extreme market and political events for which the probability is perhaps low, if still vastly under-appreciated. Among these predictions is that Germany will move toward accepting the mutualisation of Euro debt, which combined with other strains could cause the DAX to plunge by about a third from near multi-year highs to 5,000. Another is that gold will fall by around 500 dollars to USD 1,200 per ounce on faster US growth and a stronger US dollar and despite the overhang of Fed's easy monetary policy. Other events Saxo Bank believes would have a significant impact should they come to pass include Spanish interest rates rising to 10% despite the ECB's OMT mechanism as Greece exits and social tensions rise, and the un-pegging of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) from the USD and its re-pegging to the Chinese Renminbi as China attempts to take more control of its economic destiny away from the US and its central bank's policies. Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments: "This year's Outrageous Predictions are once again a selection of mainly negative events, any of which can change the financial landscape and in some cases even the political status quo. Here at the end of 2012, we have extremely low volatility in all asset classes due to the lack of real price discovery from heavy handed manipulation by central banks. In such an environment, almost any move outside of two standard deviations is becoming 'outrageous'. "These ten predictions are not Saxo Bank's official forecasts for 2013. They could, however, prove far more relevant for investors because of the huge impact if any one of them sees the light of day in the New Year. Before trading or investing, investors must know the worst case scenario - capital preservation is a must and portfolios need to be able to weather a perfect storm, or for that matter any storm." To see more please go to the Outrageous Predictions website: http://www.tradingfloor.com/topics/saxo-outrageous-predictions To follow Outrageous Predictions or make your own, join the conversation on Twitter by using the hashtag #SaxoOP and don't forget to follow Trading Floor and Saxo Bank on @tradingfloorcom and @SaxoBank Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions 2013

Dienstag, 11. Dezember 2012

My 3 favourites in a short period

Some stocks are given today a bullish sign and give me today a good opportunity Eon, Bet-at-Home, 2G Bio, Delticom, RIM and again Nokia

Montag, 10. Dezember 2012

No time...but have an eye on BB Biotech

Sorry but I didnt find the time for an update nevertheless the market is still strong and I prefer to be long until I get another information... See Morphosys (one of my favour stocks see blog commentar)still long and one of my new favourite is BB Biotech

Donnerstag, 29. November 2012

Alno - good for more

Bought Alno @1,05 compan is now for a reorganization capital increase 1,05 this is pivot point and now time to go higher

Dienstag, 27. November 2012

Fresenius

bought @51.20 time for a rebound ...after a good consolidation...credit suisse wrote toda price target around 93 euro

Freitag, 23. November 2012

Donnerstag, 22. November 2012

Morphosys

Time for the next highs..bought @25,23

Mittwoch, 21. November 2012

Nokia up again 10%

For me it will be the turn around of next year!!

Montag, 19. November 2012

What a day - Nokia 9%; AAPL 6%

We have to look which stocks lost to much in the last weeks but the fundamental of the stocks are still the same so we bought GF for exampel today

Sonntag, 18. November 2012

AAPL -time for a rebound?

The Hammer on the end of Friday makes hope for a rebound

Freitag, 16. November 2012

Donnerstag, 15. November 2012

e.on

Sometimes the market distend in both sides...in eon with eps of 7 kbv of 0.7 and dividend of 6%.... I see here a lot of upside potential. The chart dont give a sign but the pressure will less...make your own opinion...support 14 an´d 13,80

Mittwoch, 14. November 2012

Nokia - time to buy in a long period

..and here some reasons which I cop from a internet page (http://seekingalpha.com) AT&T (T) announced it is offering Nokia's (NOK) flagship phone, the Lumia 920, for $99 with a two year contract. In addition, AT&T is offering the Lumia 820 for $49.99. When compared to its competitors, Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5 costs $199 with the same two year contract and Samsung's (SSNLF) Galaxy Note II for $299. Even when you compare the price of previous iPhone models to the Lumia 920 (all with a two year contract) the iPhone 4S costs $99.99 and the iPhone 4 $49.99 in some areas. That means that a Lumia 920 costs the same as an iPhone 4S and the Lumia 820 costs the same as the ancient iPhone 4. On top of this good news AT&T also announced that it will add a wireless charging pad for free for those who purchase a Lumia 920 early but be warned this is a limited time offer and AT&T most likely has a cap for the free charging pads. The Lumia 920, with no contract commitment, costs $449.99, whereas the iPhone 5 and the Samsung Galaxy Note II costs $649.99. With no commitment for a two year plan there are no carrier subsidies, and the $200 price difference is very promising for Nokia. In just its second generation Windows phone is was able to match, if not beat, the competition in both software and hardware while making it for roughly $200 less. I personally love the strategy Nokia is moving forward with. The company is temporarily cutting profit margins in its Lumias in order to establish a larger customer base. Nokia has been shedding unprofitable sectors for over the last year and now with only small losses as a whole Nokia can push its profit margin of the new Lumias down to gain market share for the future. This can be done due to Nokia having over $3.5 billion of cash on hand. Both Nokia and Microsoft believe that the Lumia matches up with both of its competitors, the problem is proving it to the customer. Brand loyalty is always prevalent but in the U.S. it is in overdrive and customers need an obvious reason to switch operating systems. With a much lower price point many will be willing to give the Lumia 920 a shot and those on a tight budget that never even considered buying a newer smart phone and would opt out for older smart phones such as an iPhone 4 or older now have a new option with the Lumia 820 which costs less than $50. Assuming Nokia can gain a decent market share in the U.S., say around 4-5%, that will get its foot in the door and become relevant as an alternative to the other operating systems. Many will argue Nokia's plan forward is fundamentally wrong when looking at the numbers in the coming quarterly reports due to the expected lower profit margins. But this strategy is one for the next decade, not the next 12 months. Another bonus of lower prices points is that in emerging countries customers look for cheap deals and hold onto phones for shorter durations than do U.S. customers. The proof of this is in the success of Nokia's Asha line. The Asha 305 costs less than $90 with no contract. Even if the Lumia line would not be able to gain market share in the U.S., which I believe it will, the emerging markets such as China and India are places were even Apple hasn't tried to expand into yet and with customers it is mainly about brand loyalty which is why Apple experiences so much success in the U.S. Nokia has been able to get its foot in the door before Apple with lower level smart phones in emerging markets and has already developed a brand loyalty around the world from when it was on top before the smart phone revolution. This can be seen even in Europe. In Italy the Lumia 920 sold out in days and other countries like Germany and France were no different. And this is what many experts are not mentioning, the huge success that Nokia will experience outside the U.S.. With that said it does take two to tango, especially in the U.S. Many experts crucified Nokia for giving exclusive rights to AT&T for its flagship Lumia 920 and Lumia 820 but now it is clear what the plan was all along. In my view, AT&T still seems bitter from the ending of its exclusive deal it had with Apple for the first few generations of iPhones and the subsidies it is giving Nokia over Apple and Samsung is amazing. In addition, AT&T is trying to get back to the top and beat out rival Verizon (VZ). Nokia will balance low profits in the U.S. with higher profits in Europe and Asia. It is obvious AT&T wants to establish itself over Verizon and may even be looking into a similar deal with Nokia that it had with Apple only a few years ago. This bodes well for Nokia, as the company appears to have finally found a partner that is willing to buy into its Windows 8 operating system and even choose them over other Windows 8 phones. This deal should stir up the consumer base to at least look into the Lumia. While most will not receive the free charging pad because they were essentially unaware of the Lumia offering, the offer should create buzz in the media for the coming holiday season. I believe this was Nokia's plan all along and while it was not ideal to wait this long to put the Lumia into the market that was not the company's decision, it was Microsoft's (MSFT), and the company took a bad situation and turned it into a positive by giving away a free charging pad. With the offering of the charging pad being so close to the holiday season the buzz should still be around even though the offer will have expired by then. If the Lumia had been released closer to the release date of the iPhone 5 the free charging pad offer would've been forgotten by the holiday season. Nokia also knew that Microsoft would sell its operating system to the public with its $1+ billion dollar marketing campaign but appeared to have trouble distinguishing itself from the likes of HTC due to its phone looking very similar to Nokia's Lumia. The key is will Nokia run with this advertising advantage Microsoft is giving it or sit on its hands and let fate play out? Many always thought Nokia was banking on Microsoft to sell its product but now it seems Nokia has been working behind the scenes very hard and its temporary exclusive partnership with AT&T should resolve the marketing problem. AT&T is banking its current growth on the Nokia Lumia line and will have commercials galore advertising it. Every time we seem to doubt Nokia's strategy, a few weeks later the company amazes us with its commitment to a sound strategy. No one in Nokia seems worried, they are all calm and collected. Steven Elop should be praised for sticking to a strategy that even supporters criticized countless times. With strong sales in the Lumia 920 and 820 shorters should at least become worried and I believe we will see an ending to the shorts (Yahoo Finance Short Ratio). Nokia's current short ratio is 8.0. The short ratio is the number of shorts divided by the average trading volume. The reduction of shorts alone should propel Nokia into the $3 to $4 range in the next few months. My advice is stay strong and stick with Nokia and AT&T because I can already tell you what the bears will say when Q4 numbers come out. They will say things like...Nokia did sell twice as many devices as we predicted, but its profit margin was so small that the company barely made any profit. While lower profits do matter, Nokia and AT&T are both in the stage of setting up a consumer base when there are already major powerhouses. This is completely on purpose: Nokia and AT&T are sacrificing short-term profit margins in order to get phones out. Any market share Nokia can get from Apple and Samsung will likely be maintained. Windows 8 may be a completely new operating system, but consumers will quickly learn how connected all of the devices that run on Windows 8 are. Plus the Lumia has many unique features that may convince some to switch over such as wireless charging, Nokia maps, free music, a new screen display that works with gloves on, and its Pure View camera which beat out the iPhone 5 and Galaxy Note II in most comparisons. Additionally, phones are used like a temporary computer to do everything from checking on sports to reading articles, therefore phone integration into a connected ecosystem is crucial and there is no other connected system out there that can rival the one Microsoft has set up. It has a new line of laptops running on the Windows 8 software, the new Surface which blurs the line between computer and tablet, the new Lumia line, and Xbox. I personally believe it will be the Xbox that makes this new ecosystem work. Even Apple cannot offer a gaming platform as successful as the Xbox and that will make the difference, being able to connect your phone to Xbox. To make things even better Microsoft sees this and is fully committed to expanding into the smart phone market. Without a smart phone in its arsenal it would be hard for Microsoft to convince consumers to pick its other new products such as the Surface. This is due to the interconnectivity all devices now have and Microsoft is creating an entirely new ecosystem that no one can match. The exclusive deal with AT&T for the Lumia 920 and 820 is starting to make sense. AT&T and Nokia worked hard to make these phones dirt cheap and are willing to throw in a wireless charger to create buzz. Both sides needed to give a little to make this a success and they did just that. While the profit numbers at the end of Q4 may not be the best for either company, they will have a large volume of sales. I have always thought Nokia was a value buy, but not anymore. I believe it is beyond a value buy now. Nokia looks like it is in prime position to pick up a larger market share than most experts thought even a few months ago. Also do not forget AT&T in the future, I have a feeling it will make (or have already made) a similar deal with Nokia as it did originally with Apple. The company has put too much effort and subsidizing too much of the Lumia line for me to believe there is not more to this deal that will benefit both AT&T and Nokia in the future.

Sonntag, 11. November 2012

Short time?

The chart shows that we break the support and we will have more then less uncomfatable time but I think that we will get good opportunities to buy good stocks. Also have a look of Nokia the first sales of Lumia 920 can give the first sign of the sicken patient.

Sonntag, 21. Oktober 2012

short in EURUSD

Short in EURUSD and in DAX (SL 7400) ans long in Morphoss That`s it

Sonntag, 7. Oktober 2012

EADS

I don`t see which added value the companys get with this fusion. Also I`don`t believe that London like that Berlin barge in. If this deal fails, it will have been stifled in the corridors of power. I see then more the 30 Euros per share for EADS.

Donnerstag, 13. September 2012

Be bullish

I`m long in ASM; Daimler; Sk; ABB; UBS; Gold and will bu more if see more opportunities

Sonntag, 9. September 2012

Sonntag, 10. Juni 2012

Trade of the year by michael Sankowski

Swiss Franc: Trade of the Year The Swiss Central Bank pegged the price of the Franc to the Euro at 1.2000 on September 6th, 2011. The peg was widely criticized at the time, and many claimed the bank could not hold the level for any length of time. The commitment to the peg was further questioned when the primary architect of the peg was forced to resign after a currency trading scandal involving his wife. Philip Hildebrand, the head of the SNB, was forced to resign when it turned out his wife made a currency trade which profited from a massive Central Bank intervention in the currency markets. Still, here we are 9 months later and the peg has held. The EURCHF is trading 1.2010 as I write this, and has only fell below 1.2000 for a few ticks on one day. It appears some junior staffer must have went out for coffee that day. The reason for the huge overvaluation is the capital flows out of the Euro currency into the franc. Europeans are worried about the value of the Euro going down – or even the risk of the Euro breaking up. This caused people to switch from Euros into francs, USD, and Japanese Yen. But the Switzerland is a small country, with a much smaller economy. So even moderate capital flows had a huge impact on it’s currency. This caused a historic rally in the franc over the early part of 2011. Before the interventions in September 2011, the Swiss was the most overvalued currency in the world, and certainly the most overvalued major currency in the world. According to the Economists “Big Mac” index, the swiss franc was overvalued by 100% or more at the peak value. Since the Franc is locked in value relative to the Euro, this means the franc and the Euro move in the same manner relative to the U.S. Dollar. As the EURUSD fluctuates, the USDCHF will fluctuate in the same manner. This means the FXE and the FXF will move in a very similar fashion. To determine how much longer the EURCHF will be close to the 1.2000 peg level, we must keep in mind the reasons for the capital flows. We must remember the reason for the strength of the franc was the capital flows out of the Euro, and not any real fundamental strength of the CHF. Therefore, the level of the Euro isnt’ as important as the belief the euro will survive. What will trigger a fall in the value of the Swiss franc is return of capital to Europe as confidence grows the Euro will survive and prosper. This means something interesting. When the Euro falls in value, it is a good thing for european economies. It makes them more competitive in the world. In short, a weaker euro is part of the cure for the problems in Europe. This means once the EURUSD gets below the 1.2300 level, the reason for capital to stay in Switzerland gets weaker, and repatriation of assets becomes attractive to those wealthy individuals holding their assets in Swiss Francs. This could begin happen as soon as a few weeks from today. The trade of the year is going to be timing the beginning of the huge fall in the swiss franc, and I believe we we’ve already seen the breakout which portends the massive downward move for the Swiss franc. ***Here is Daniel H. Nelson over at The Institute for New Economic Thinking with a highly related post. (Cross posted from Generate FX. I saw the Nelson piece through Tom H today, and I thought this was interesting for the MMR crowd due to the capital flow/Euro crisis dimension of the piece. Keep in mind the solutions for Europe all result in a weaker Euro, and make Euro assets more attractive, which makes being long Swiss francs less attractive. )

Donnerstag, 26. April 2012

Tomorrow Daytrading I`m at home ;-)

I`m long in Gildemeister, Porsche and 2G Energy Closed today Schuler Open new trade Gery Weber going for a break

Montag, 23. April 2012

Dax

Just closed my dax short position and now long in Dax @6540 SL 6500 Target: 6650

Freitag, 13. April 2012

Trades

Bought PSM @19.20 SL: 18.70 Target: 19,80-20.15 Bought Schuler@14.25 SL: 14.00 Target: 14.80 Bought PRA @1.68 SL: 1.60 Target: 2.00

Donnerstag, 12. April 2012

USDJPY -long @80.95

I think it is time for a rebound around 81,50

Montag, 9. April 2012

Gold

If the support breaks Gold can be switch to short

Sonntag, 26. Februar 2012

Pro7

It`s time for a break*

USDJPY still long and 117 pips in front

USDJPY still long and 117 pips in front

Sonntag, 19. Februar 2012

USDJPY long

Bodenformation ist am Ende Zeit um long zu gehen

Samstag, 18. Februar 2012

Bull Shares from yestrday

-2GB -Schuler -aixtron -klöckner Tomorrow I will public some charts

Sonntag, 5. Februar 2012

Still long

I`m still long and believe that we will reach Dax 7000 and DJ 13.000 points. Long in PRA, LPK, GMM, 2GB, LEO and my favourite for the next weeks PSM: target around 21 Euro